The Peak: Olive Oil’s Most Expensive Moment
Every climb has a summit. For olive oil’s great price crisis, the peak came when extra virgin in the heart of Spain reached a number no one had ever seen — around triple its pre-crisis level. Understanding that moment explains the whole cycle around it.
In the heart of Andalusia, in Jaen — the single biggest olive region on earth — extra virgin olive oil at origin reached a record of around €900 per 100 kg, roughly triple its pre-crisis level. After two failed Spanish harvests, the market had simply run out of slack, and the price went vertical. It was the apex of a long climb, and from that summit the only way was, eventually, down.
How a price goes vertical
Olive oil has almost no buffer. There is one harvest a year and only so much oil in storage; when two harvests fail in a row, the reserves that normally cushion a bad year are simply gone. With nothing left to draw on and demand holding firm, each remaining litre is bid higher and higher. That is what ‘running out of slack’ looks like in a price chart: not a gentle slope but a near-vertical line, because there is no cushion left to slow it.
Why a record cuts both ways
A price record is thrilling for a speculator and miserable for almost everyone else. Shoppers are priced out of a staple. Fraudsters are emboldened, because the gap between cheap base oil and real extra virgin has never been wider. Even thieves join in, draining tanks and stealing oil by the tankerload. A number like €900/100kg is not a triumph for the olive world — it is a symptom of a system under acute stress.
Remember the number
Hold on to that figure, because roughly a year later the same oil crashed by half. The pairing — a record high, then a violent fall — is the clearest possible proof that wild swings serve no one. What the olive world actually needs is not a thrilling peak but a fair, steady price that keeps honest growers in business and real oil on the shelf.
| Ingredient of the peak | What it did |
|---|---|
| Two failed harvests | Drained the reserves that cushion a bad year |
| No stored slack | Left each litre bid ever higher |
| Firm demand | Kept buyers competing for scarce oil |
| Record price | Priced out shoppers, emboldened fraud and theft |
- A near-vertical price means the reserves are gone, not that anyone is gouging.
- A record high emboldens fraud and theft as much as it stings shoppers.
- The peak and the crash a year later are one instability, not two events.
- A fair, steady price is healthier for everyone than any record.
The price peak: common questions
How high did olive oil actually get?
At origin in Jaen, the heart of Spanish production, extra virgin reached a record of around €900 per 100 kg — roughly triple its pre-crisis level.
Why did it climb so steeply?
Two failed harvests in a row exhausted the reserves that normally cushion a bad year. With no slack left and steady demand, the price went nearly vertical.
Who is hurt by a record price?
Almost everyone but speculators: shoppers priced out, honest producers destabilised, and buyers exposed to more fraud and even outright oil theft.
What happened after the peak?
A rebound harvest sent the same oil crashing by about half within roughly a year — the mirror image of the spike.
What is the lesson of the peak?
That wild swings serve no one. A fair, stable price keeps growers in business and real oil flowing far better than any record ever could.
A price record is thrilling for a speculator and miserable for everyone else — shoppers priced out, fraudsters emboldened, even thieves stealing oil by the tankerload. Remember a number like €900/100kg when, a year later, the same oil crashed by half : it is the clearest proof that wild swings serve no one. A fair, steady price is what the olive world actually needs.
Drawn from origin-price data for Jaen extra virgin at the peak of the mid-2020s crisis.