Exports Surge as Values Collapse

By late 2025 the numbers told a plain story: export volumes rising, unit values falling by two-fifths. That gap — more oil, less money — is the whole boom-and-bust cycle written in two figures, and it never rests.

For two brutal years, olive oil had been the poster child of food inflation — a Mediterranean staple that turned, briefly, into a luxury. Then, in the back half of 2025, the market quietly exhaled. Export volumes climbed while the price per tonne collapsed by around two-fifths year on year. On the surface that is unambiguous good news: the world is awash in affordable oil again. Underneath, it is the same old cycle turning, and the same old people getting hurt.

What the two numbers mean

Volumes up, value down by roughly 40% is not a paradox — it is a glut. When a big harvest lands after a shortage, buyers who had rationed for years restock at once, so quantity rises even as the price per litre falls off a cliff. The bulk of what moves internationally is extra virgin, the grade everyone wants, which is why the collapse in unit value is felt right across the quality spectrum, not just at the cheap end. The spike had fully unwound; the question was who would pay for the correction.

Why ‘more for less’ is a trap

Cheap oil at the till is a genuine relief for shoppers. But the arithmetic that delights a supermarket buyer is exactly the arithmetic that drowns a grower. Trees cost the same to tend whether oil sells high or low; a hillside grove picked by hand cannot cut its costs to match an industrial hedgerow. When the price falls below what it costs to farm, the rational move is to stop investing — skip the pruning, delay replanting, or walk away from the oldest, steepest, least profitable groves altogether. That is how a glut today seeds the next shortage tomorrow.

The cycle, and how to read it

Olive oil lurches between too dear and too cheap because supply is slow and demand is impatient. A tree planted now yields seriously only years later, so growers cannot ramp up when prices spike or throttle back fast when they crash. Add the olive’s natural alternate bearing — heavy one year, light the next — and a run of droughts, and you get violent swings around a price that rarely settles in the fair middle. The honest lesson of the whole 2019–2025 arc is that neither a boom nor a bust is good news: stable, fair prices are what keep good groves alive.

Phase	What happens to price	Who wins	Who loses
Shortage / spike	Rises sharply	Growers with oil to sell	Shoppers; fraud rises
Correction	Volumes up, value down	Shoppers restocking	Growers below cost
Glut	Falls hard	Bargain hunters	Small traditional growers
Fair middle (rare)	Stable	Everyone, quietly	No one is squeezed

What a buyer should take from it

• Falling prices are a good time to buy quality — the same oil now costs less than it did at the peak.
• But store it properly: cool, dark, sealed. A cheap year is only a bargain if the oil is still fresh when you use it.
• Remember that a very cheap ‘premium’ oil in a tight year is a warning sign, not a deal.
• Support named, traceable producers when you can; they are the ones a crash pushes closest to the edge.

The price collapse: common questions

How can exports rise while value falls?

Because a big harvest after a shortage brings a glut. Buyers restock all at once, so the quantity shipped goes up even as the price per tonne drops sharply. More oil, less money per litre.

Is cheaper olive oil a bad thing?

For shoppers, no — it is a relief. The catch is on the farm: when the price falls below the cost of growing, small and traditional producers can no longer cover their costs, which weakens supply for the future.

Why does the price swing so violently?

Supply is slow — a new tree takes years to yield — while demand and weather move fast. Add the olive’s natural alternate bearing and repeated droughts, and prices overshoot in both directions.

Does a crash lead to the next shortage?

It can. When prices fall below cost, growers stop investing — less pruning, delayed replanting, abandoned groves — which quietly erodes the supply that a future bad season then exposes.

What is the healthiest outcome?

Neither boom nor bust, but a stable, fair price that lets honest growers cover their costs and keep good groves in production. That, not cheapness, is what a resilient olive world needs.

Drawn from International Olive Council export data and standard olive-oil market dynamics; figures reported for 2025.