Madera, CA: Olive price is up, but production mediocre
A season where the price is up but the trees are half-empty is not bad luck : it is the olive being an olive. California’s canning-olive belt lives by alternate bearing, frost risk and the hard economics of a fruit paid by the ton — and understanding that explains a lot about the black olives in the can.
Central California is the heart of America’s table-olive business — the plump black and green olives that come out of a can rather than a bottle. It is a world away from the boutique extra-virgin scene, and it runs on its own hard arithmetic. Some years the price per ton is strong but the trees carry little fruit ; other years they groan with olives and the price sags. To a shopper that looks like chaos. To a grower it is the predictable, maddening rhythm of the olive tree, and it shapes everything from the harvest to what ends up on your pizza.
Alternate bearing: the on-year, off-year swing
The olive is a champion alternate bearer. A heavy crop one year exhausts the tree and sets up a light one the next, so yields naturally seesaw — a big on-year followed by a meagre off-year, over and over. A statewide crop can be several times larger than the season before for this reason alone. Growers fight it with pruning and thinning, but they never fully beat it. So a headline about a poor California olive year is often not disease or disaster : it is simply the trees taking their turn to rest.
Frost, heat and the perfect storm
Layered on top of the natural swing is the weather. A hard winter freeze can damage wood and buds ; heat during spring bloom can stop the flowers setting fruit ; drought stress at the wrong moment thins the crop further. Stack a spring freeze onto a natural off-year and you get the classic California olive shortfall — the trees look healthy but there is simply not much on them. Because growers are paid by the ton, and larger fruit earns far more than small, a light year with good sizing can still pay while a light year with small fruit hurts badly.
| Main varieties | Manzanillo (mid-size) and Sevillano (large), for canning |
|---|---|
| How growers are paid | By the ton, with big premiums for larger fruit size |
| Alternate bearing | Heavy on-years alternate with light off-years |
| Frost risk | Winter freezes damage wood; spring heat can spoil fruit set |
| Harvest | Roughly September–November, largely by hand |
| Fate of small fruit | Undersized and late olives often diverted to oil |
The old orchards and the squeeze
Some of California’s olive trees are a century old, gnarled survivors planted at the turn of the twentieth century. Beautiful as they are, many older orchards have been pulled, abandoned or sold off for their trees as landscape specimens, because canning olives are a thin-margin business squeezed between labour costs, water and cheaper imports. The fruit is largely hand-picked, which is expensive, and the economics only work at the right price and size. When they do not, the oldest, least productive groves are the first to go — which is why a good price in a lean year is a lifeline, not a windfall.
What it means at the shelf
- Canned black and green olives are mostly Manzanillo and Sevillano, a different world from bottled extra virgin.
- A poor crop year is often just alternate bearing, not disaster — the trees are resting.
- Growers are paid by the ton and by size, so weather that shrinks the fruit hits hard.
- Small and late olives are frequently diverted to oil rather than wasted.
California table olives: common questions
What are canned olives usually made from?
In California, mostly the Manzanillo and larger Sevillano varieties, grown specifically for canning rather than oil.
Why do California olive crops swing so much year to year?
Because olives are alternate bearing : a heavy crop one year tires the tree into a light crop the next, so statewide yields naturally seesaw.
How does frost affect the crop?
A winter freeze can damage wood and buds, while heat during spring bloom can prevent fruit setting — both cutting the harvest.
How are growers paid?
By the ton, with significant premiums for larger fruit, so a year of small olives pays far less even if the tonnage is fair.
What happens to undersized olives?
Small, late or surplus fruit is often sent for oil rather than canning, so little of the crop is truly wasted.
Do not read a bad California olive year as a crisis : nine times out of ten it is just alternate bearing, the tree taking a season off after a heavy one. What really decides a grower’s year is fruit size, because canners pay by the ton and reward big olives — so a spring freeze or a hot bloom that shrinks the crop hurts far more than a lower count alone. And spare a thought for those century-old orchards : hand-picking is dear, margins are thin, and a decent price in a lean year is often all that keeps the oldest trees from being pulled.
Drawn from background on California table-olive growing and alternate bearing.