Spring 2023: Olive Oil’s Relentless Climb
By spring 2023 the long squeeze on olive oil finally had a hard number attached — prices near a three-decade peak as Spain’s drought ground on and relief looked far off. It was the moment a slow tightening became an open crisis.
In early May 2023, global olive-oil prices stood around $5,990 a tonne — a near-three-decade peak — driven by Spain’s prolonged drought. Spain had made about 630,000 tonnes in 2022/23, far below its usual 1.4 to 1.5 million, and analysts warned the elevated prices would persist. What makes spring 2023 worth a proper look is that it was the hinge: the point where a quiet, multi-year tightening turned into a number on a screen that would keep climbing all year toward an autumn record.
Why a Spanish drought sets a global price
Olive oil has an unusually concentrated source. Spain alone makes something close to half of it in a normal year, so the Spanish harvest is effectively the world’s shock absorber. When it fails, there is no larger producer to lean on, and the global benchmark price simply reprices around the shortfall. A grower in Greece or a shopper in New York feels an Andalusian drought because there is no bigger pool of oil to dilute it. That is the mechanism behind the spring 2023 number.
Why the climb did not stop
Prices kept rising through 2023 for a simple reason: the shortfall was already in the ground. Olive oil is made once a year from a crop set months earlier, so a bad harvest locks in scarcity that lasts until the next one — and there is no way to import your way out quickly when the biggest producer is the one that is short. Add a second dry year and stocks that were already thin, and the only variable left to move was the price. It rose until enough buyers stepped back.
Scarcity’s twin
For shoppers, the spring 2023 climb meant sticker shock. For the supply chain, it meant temptation, because the dearer real oil gets, the more fraud follows in its shadow. Scarcity and fakery are the same story told twice: a high price is a reward for honest growers and a lure for dishonest ones. The higher the number climbed, the more a suspiciously cheap ‘bargain’ bottle deserved suspicion.
| The signal | What it meant |
|---|---|
| Price ~$5,990/t | A near-30-year peak, and still rising |
| Spain ~630,000 t | Less than half its usual crop |
| Drought grinding on | No quick relief in sight |
| Analysts warn prices persist | Scarcity locked in until the next harvest |
| Fraud pressure building | Dearer oil pulls in the fakers |
What to take from it
- Watch the wholesale trend, not just the shelf price — it tells you where scarcity is heading.
- A single dominant producer means one country’s weather can move your grocery bill.
- In a rising market, suspiciously cheap ‘premium’ oil is a warning, not a win.
- Buy on real origin and harvest date to sidestep the fraud that shadows a spike.
- Remember a bad harvest locks in scarcity for a whole year — it cannot be undone quickly.
Spring 2023’s price climb: common questions
How high were olive-oil prices in spring 2023?
Around $5,990 a tonne globally — a near-three-decade peak — and still rising, driven by Spain’s prolonged drought.
Why does Spain’s harvest matter so much?
Spain makes close to half the world’s olive oil in a normal year, so its harvest is the global shock absorber. When it fails, no larger producer can fill the gap and prices reprice worldwide.
Why did prices keep climbing all year?
Olive oil is made once a year from a crop set months earlier, so a bad harvest locks in scarcity until the next one. With the biggest producer short, there was no quick way to import a fix.
How much was Spain’s crop down?
Spain made about 630,000 tonnes in 2022/23, well under half its usual 1.4 to 1.5 million tonnes.
Does a price spike increase fraud?
Yes. The dearer real oil becomes, the bigger the margin in faking it, so mislabelling and adulteration tend to rise alongside the price.
Spring 2023 is when the squeeze stopped being a vague worry and became a figure you could point at. And here is the thing to remember about a number like that: it does not fall the moment the rain returns. A bad harvest is baked in for a whole year, because the oil is made once from a crop set months before. So when you saw the price climbing, the sensible reading was not ‘it’ll pass soon’ but ‘watch out for the fakers’ — because a dear market is exactly when a too-cheap bottle should worry you most.
Drawn from May 2023 reporting on record global olive-oil prices and Spain’s drought-reduced 2022/23 harvest.