Prices Slide as a Big Crop Looms
By midsummer 2024 the recovery had moved from hope to data. Prices were sliding, and the first estimates of the coming crop were big enough to change the mood entirely.
What happened
By June, extra virgin in Jaén had fallen about 12% from its January peak, and the first estimates of the 2024/25 Spanish crop — potentially around 1.65 million tonnes — pushed prices to their lowest since the previous summer. The market was pricing in plenty before the olives were even ripe.
Why it matters
This is how commodity markets work: they trade the future. A strong June forecast deflated prices months ahead of the harvest, easing the squeeze on shoppers while the trees were still flowering.
Every step down in price was relief at the till — and a step toward the 2025 farm crisis, when prices fell so far that growers couldn’t cover costs. The market never settles; it just hands the pain back and forth between shopper and farmer.
Source, June 2024: Jaén price data and 2024/25 crop estimates (Olive Oil Times / IOC).