The Tide Turns: A Big Harvest Forecast

After two brutal years, the late summer of 2024 brought the first real relief — not in the shops yet, but in the forecasts. Spain’s coming harvest looked big, and the market started to exhale.

What happened

With better rains, Spain’s 2024/25 crop was projected to rebound sharply — up around 52% to roughly 1.3 million tonnes — and Tunisia’s harvest was also forecast well up. As the prospect of plenty firmed, the long price climb finally turned downward.

Why it matters

This was the hinge between the shortage and the crash. Forecasts move markets before harvests do: just the expectation of a big Spanish crop was enough to start deflating the record prices, months before a single new olive was pressed.