The First 2025/26 Forecast: Easing From the Peak
In autumn 2025, the IOC’s first 2025/26 estimate saw world output easing about 4% from the record rebound year — a hot, dry summer trimming Spain’s bumper run.
What happened
The IOC’s first 2025/26 forecast put world production around 3.44 million tonnes, about 4% below the record 2024/25 crop, with Spain near 1.37 million as an exceptionally hot, dry summer offset abundant spring rains. The signal: the rebound’s peak had passed, even with prices still low.
A 4% dip is mild — not a new crisis, just the natural give-and-take of the olive year. But it’s a reminder that nothing here stays still: even mid-glut, a hot summer quietly shaves the next crop. The underlying squeeze — a warming climate on a concentrated crop — never went away; it just stepped back for a season.
Source, autumn 2025: International Olive Council.