Spanish Olive Oil Exports Top a Million Tons as Prices Fall
The recovery was real, and fast. Once favourable rains returned, Spain was again awash in oil — exporting more than a million tonnes and dragging world prices back toward earth. But a crash is never simply good news.
After two punishing years of scarcity, the pendulum swung hard the other way. A good harvest refilled Spain’s tanks, exports blew past a million tonnes, and prices fell — in places by more than half at the farm gate within a single year. Shoppers cheered. But anyone who watches the trade closely felt the familiar unease: a violent fall is the same disease as a violent rise, just wearing the other face.
What a rebound harvest does
Olive oil is a once-a-year crop with almost no give in it. When a big producing country like Spain has a poor year, there is no hidden reserve to soften the blow, so prices spike. When the rains return and the trees crop heavily again, the reverse happens just as sharply: tanks fill, exporters compete to shift volume, and the price tumbles. The market has no shock absorber. It lurches from one extreme to the other, and it can do so in barely twelve months.
Why a crash is not simply good news
Cheap oil feels like a win at the till. But ruinously low farm-gate prices are exactly how groves get abandoned and the next shortage is quietly sown. A grower selling below the cost of picking and pressing does not plant more trees or invest in the grove — they cut back, or they walk away. Fewer trees tended today means less oil, and a sharper spike, a few years down the line. The bargain in your basket this year can be the reason for the shortage in three.
The case for a fair, steady price
The healthiest outcome for everyone is not the cheapest possible oil. It is a fair, stable price that lets honest growers cover their costs and keep going, so that real oil keeps flowing. Boom serves the speculator; bust serves the fraudster and the bargain-hunter for one season, then punishes everyone. Stability is the boring, unglamorous thing the olive world actually needs — and rarely gets.
| The spike | The crash | |
|---|---|---|
| Who cheers | Speculators, sellers of old stock | Shoppers, retailers |
| Who suffers | Shoppers priced out; fraud tempted | Growers selling below cost |
| What it sows | Theft, adulteration, distrust | Abandoned groves, the next shortage |
| The real cure | Rain, and patience | A fair, stable farm-gate price |
- A price crash is the twin of a price spike, not its opposite — both are instability.
- Below-cost prices push growers to abandon groves, sowing the next shortage.
- The prize is a fair, steady price, not the cheapest possible bottle.
- When oil is suddenly very cheap, it is still worth buying traceable and dated.
Falling olive-oil prices: common questions
Why did olive oil suddenly get cheap again?
A rebound harvest in Spain refilled the tanks after two lean years. With supply restored and exporters competing to sell, farm-gate prices fell sharply — in places by more than half in a single year.
Is cheap olive oil good news?
For shoppers, yes, in the short term. But prices so low that growers cannot cover their costs lead to abandoned groves and the next shortage — so it is a mixed blessing.
Why does a crash hurt growers so much?
Picking and pressing cost the same whether the price is high or low. When the farm-gate price falls below that cost, growers lose money on every litre and may stop tending or replanting.
What would be better than boom and bust?
A fair, stable price that lets honest growers keep going and keeps genuine oil flowing. Wild swings mostly reward speculators and fraudsters.
Should I stock up when oil is cheap?
You can, but buy dark bottles, check the harvest date, and use it within a year or so — even cheap oil goes stale, and freshness matters more than a bargain.
Cheap oil feels like a win — but ruinously low farm-gate prices are how groves get abandoned and the next shortage is sown. I have watched this cycle turn more than once, and the lesson never changes: the healthiest outcome isn’t the cheapest possible oil, it’s a fair, stable price that lets honest growers keep going. Boom and bust serve no one for long — except the people selling you something that isn’t quite what the label says.
Drawn from Spanish export and farm-gate price reporting across the mid-2020s recovery.